You can stream the Melbourne Cup and all of Cup Day on the 10 Play app. RACE 1 - DARLEY OTTAWA STAKES 1000M (10.55am) The vast majority of the horses here are having their first start, so that. Only two horses have been the Melbourne Cup favourite three years in a row. Trafalgar in 1909, 1910 and 1911, who didn't win in any of those years, and Phar Lap in 1929, 1930 and 1931, who won.
- The Melbourne Cup Horse Race
- Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Windows
- Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win
- Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Prizes
- Melbourne Cup Horses
Weight: 54.5kg/Age: 6yo/Jockey: TBC/Trainer: Paul Preusker. Despite only managing.
Updated November 04, 2014 17:08:20
It's that time of year again, when Australians who know anything and nothing about racing stop what they're doing for the Melbourne Cup.
ABC Fact Check takes a look at the statistics since 1861, the very first year the Melbourne Cup was held.
How often does the favourite actually win? And would you be ahead or behind if you bet on the favourite every year?
Here's what we found:
1.
A favourite horse has won the Melbourne Cup 34 times out of 153 races. This means the favourite has a 22 per cent chance of winning.
Peter Hall, a professor in mathematics and statistics from the University of Melbourne, says that's a good result.
'If you choose a horse at random, the probability that it wins is 1/24 = 0.042; and if you put your money on the favourite, the probability of it winning is 34/153 = 0.22,' he said.
'That's an increase by a factor of about 5.3 by simply noting which horse is the favourite, and that is not bad.'
2.
The favourite has placed first, second or third in 46 per cent of all Melbourne Cup races.
3.
The favourite's odds have ranged from $1.73 - Phar Lap in 1930 - to $8. The winner's odds have ranged from $1.73 to $101.
Veteran racing journalist Max Presnell says there will never be another favourite with odds as short as Phar Lap's.
'The composition of the Melbourne Cup has changed with the internationals racing in it, it's a handicap, horses carry big weights, so it would be very surprising if another champion like Phar Lap ever raced in a Melbourne cup,' he said.
'The great horses these days will shy clear of it.. they wouldn't want to risk a good horse to win one race.'
4.
The Melbourne Cup Horse Race
The average odds of all Melbourne Cup favourites is $5.03.There have been 173 favourites since 1861 - two equal favourites 16 times, and three equal favourites twice. The average odds of all 153 winners is $15.25.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Windows
5.
If you had put $10 on all 173 favourites to win in every one of the 153 Melbourne Cup races, you would be behind by $20. The total winnings from the 34 favourites that won would have been $1,710, but you would have spent $1,730.
6.
The longest period without a favourite winning is 13 years, before Bitalli broke the drought in 1923.
A favourite has never won the Melbourne Cup more than two years in a row. British-bred Makybe Diva is the only horse to have won the Melbourne Cup three years in a row in 2003, 2004 and 2005, but she was only favourite in 2004 and 2005.
7.
Only two horses have been the Melbourne Cup favourite three years in a row. Pokerstars. Trafalgar in 1909, 1910 and 1911, who didn't win in any of those years, and Phar Lap in 1929, 1930 and 1931, who won in 1930.
8.
The last Australian-bred favourite was Alcopop in 2009. The last Australian-bred favourite to win the Melbourne Cup was Sirius in 1944. The last Australian-bred horse to win the Melbourne Cup was Shocking in 2009.
'The visiting horses are better stayers than our horses, they're better over longer journeys - the 3,200 metres - than our horses,' Presnell said.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win
'They've got to travel over here and settle in and handle our conditions, which for years was a problem, but they're getting better at it now because the trainers understand what they've got to do, so it's becoming very hard for Australians to win the Melbourne Cup.'
9.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Prizes
In 1934, equal favourites Nightly and Sir Simper had a starting price of $5.50 but finished 21st and 22nd in a field of 22.
The data
How often does the favourite actually win? And would you be ahead or behind if you bet on the favourite every year?
Here's what we found:
1.
A favourite horse has won the Melbourne Cup 34 times out of 153 races. This means the favourite has a 22 per cent chance of winning.
Peter Hall, a professor in mathematics and statistics from the University of Melbourne, says that's a good result.
'If you choose a horse at random, the probability that it wins is 1/24 = 0.042; and if you put your money on the favourite, the probability of it winning is 34/153 = 0.22,' he said.
'That's an increase by a factor of about 5.3 by simply noting which horse is the favourite, and that is not bad.'
2.
The favourite has placed first, second or third in 46 per cent of all Melbourne Cup races.
3.
The favourite's odds have ranged from $1.73 - Phar Lap in 1930 - to $8. The winner's odds have ranged from $1.73 to $101.
Veteran racing journalist Max Presnell says there will never be another favourite with odds as short as Phar Lap's.
'The composition of the Melbourne Cup has changed with the internationals racing in it, it's a handicap, horses carry big weights, so it would be very surprising if another champion like Phar Lap ever raced in a Melbourne cup,' he said.
'The great horses these days will shy clear of it.. they wouldn't want to risk a good horse to win one race.'
4.
The Melbourne Cup Horse Race
The average odds of all Melbourne Cup favourites is $5.03.There have been 173 favourites since 1861 - two equal favourites 16 times, and three equal favourites twice. The average odds of all 153 winners is $15.25.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Windows
5.
If you had put $10 on all 173 favourites to win in every one of the 153 Melbourne Cup races, you would be behind by $20. The total winnings from the 34 favourites that won would have been $1,710, but you would have spent $1,730.
6.
The longest period without a favourite winning is 13 years, before Bitalli broke the drought in 1923.
A favourite has never won the Melbourne Cup more than two years in a row. British-bred Makybe Diva is the only horse to have won the Melbourne Cup three years in a row in 2003, 2004 and 2005, but she was only favourite in 2004 and 2005.
7.
Only two horses have been the Melbourne Cup favourite three years in a row. Pokerstars. Trafalgar in 1909, 1910 and 1911, who didn't win in any of those years, and Phar Lap in 1929, 1930 and 1931, who won in 1930.
8.
The last Australian-bred favourite was Alcopop in 2009. The last Australian-bred favourite to win the Melbourne Cup was Sirius in 1944. The last Australian-bred horse to win the Melbourne Cup was Shocking in 2009.
'The visiting horses are better stayers than our horses, they're better over longer journeys - the 3,200 metres - than our horses,' Presnell said.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win
'They've got to travel over here and settle in and handle our conditions, which for years was a problem, but they're getting better at it now because the trainers understand what they've got to do, so it's becoming very hard for Australians to win the Melbourne Cup.'
9.
Melbourne Cup Horses Favorites To Win Prizes
In 1934, equal favourites Nightly and Sir Simper had a starting price of $5.50 but finished 21st and 22nd in a field of 22.
The data
| YEAR | FAVOURITE/S | FAVOURITE'S ODDS ($) | FAVOURITE'S RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Fiorente | 7.00 | WON |
| 2012 | Dunaden | 7.00 | 14th |
| 2011 | Americain | 5.00 | 4th |
| 2010 | So You Think | 3.00 | 3rd |
| 2009 | Alcopop | 4.80 | 6th |
| 2008 | Mad Rush | 5.50 | 7th |
| 2007 | Master O'Reilly | 3.80 | 8th |
| 2006 | Pop Rock | 6.00 | 2nd |
| Tawqeet | 6.00 | 19th | |
| 2005 | Makybe Diva | 4.50 | WON |
| 2004 | Makybe Diva | 3.50 | WON |
| 2003 | Mamool | 6.50 | 23rd |
| 2002 | Vinnie Roe | 5.50 | 4th |
| 2001 | Sky Heights | 6.00 | 8th |
| 2000 | Kaapstad Way | 5.50 | 4th |
| 1999 | Sky Heights | 4.50 | 17th |
| 1998 | Jezabeel | 7.00 | WON |
| 1997 | Might And Power | 4.50 | WON |
| 1996 | Oscar Schindler | 5.00 | 15th |
| 1995 | Double Trigger | 4.50 | 18th |
| 1994 | Vintage Crop | 6.00 | 7th |
| 1993 | Our Pompeii | 6.00 | 14th |
| 1992 | Veandercross | 3.25 | 2nd |
| 1991 | Let's Elope | 4.00 | WON |
| 1990 | Kingston Rule | 8.00 | WON |
| The Phantom | 8.00 | 2nd | |
| 1989 | Empire Rose | 5.50 | 15th |
| 1988 | Empire Rose | 6.00 | WON |
| Natski | 6.00 | 2nd | |
| 1987 | Rosedale | 6.00 | 3rd |
| 1986 | Mr. Lomondy | 6.00 | 8th |
| 1985 | Our Sophia | 5.50 | 10th |
| 1984 | Affinity | 5.00 | 6th |
| Bounty Hawk | 5.00 | 15th | |
| 1983 | Chiamare | 7.00 | 6th |
| 1982 | Just A Dash | 6.50 | 16th |
| 1981 | No Peer | 5.00 | 8th |
| 1980 | Hyperno | 4.00 | 7th |
| 1979 | Dulcify | 4.00 | Pulled up |
| 1978 | So Called | 5.50 | 5th |
| 1977 | Gold And Black | 4.50 | WON |
| 1976 | Van Der Hum | 5.50 | WON |
| 1975 | Suleiman | 3.75 | 4th |
| 1974 | Leilani | 4.50 | 2nd |
| 1973 | Glengowan | 3.50 | 2nd |
| 1972 | Magnifique | 4.50 | 2nd |
| 1971 | Gay Icarus | 2.75 | 9th |
| 1970 | Voleur | 3.25 | 6th |
| 1969 | Tails | 3.00 | 7th |
| 1968 | Lowland | 7.00 | 4th |
| Arctic Coast | 7.00 | 6th | |
| 1967 | Red Handed | 5.00 | WON |
| General Command | 5.00 | 6th | |
| 1966 | Galilee | 6.50 | WON |
| 1965 | Sail Away | 5.00 | 17th |
| 1964 | Sir Dane | 4.00 | 24th |
| 1963 | Summer Regent | 3.25 | 22nd |
| 1962 | Even Stevens | 4.00 | WON |
| 1961 | Sparkler | 7.00 | 9th |
| 1960 | Tulloch | 4.00 | 7th |
| 1959 | Mac | 6.00 | 21st |
| 1958 | Yeman | 3.25 | 4th |
| 1957 | Redcraze | 6.50 | 8th |
| 1956 | Redcraze | 2.75 | 2nd |
| 1955 | Rising Fast | 3.00 | 2nd |
| 1954 | Rising Fast | 3.50 | WON |
| 1953 | Hydrogen | 5.00 | 6th |
| 1952 | Dalray | 6.00 | WON |
| 1951 | Morse Code | 5.00 | Fell |
| 1950 | Alister | 4.00 | 8th |
| 1949 | Delta | 7.00 | 5th |
| 1948 | Howe | 2.75 | 5th |
| 1947 | Fresh Boy | 6.50 | 2nd |
| 1946 | Cordale | 5.00 | 10th |
| 1945 | Silver Link | 8.00 | 2nd |
| St. Fairy | 8.00 | 4th | |
| 1944 | Sirius | 4.00 | WON |
| 1943 | Dark Felt | 4.50 | WON |
| Skipton | 4.50 | 5th | |
| 1942 | Dark Felt | 5.50 | 4th |
| 1941 | Beau Vite | 6.50 | 3rd |
| 1940 | Beau Vite | 2.75 | 4th |
| 1939 | Rivette | 6.00 | WON |
| 1938 | Royal Chief | 6.00 | 5th |
| 1937 | The Trump | 6.50 | WON |
| Sir Regent | 6.50 | Unplaced | |
| Hua | 6.50 | 14th | |
| 1936 | Talking | 4.00 | 7th |
| 1935 | Marabou | 5.50 | WON |
| 1934 | Nightly | 5.50 | 21st |
| Sir Simper | 5.50 | 22nd | |
| 1933 | Rogilla | 3.50 | 15th |
| 1932 | Peter Pan | 5.00 | WON |
| 1931 | Phar Lap | 4.00 | 8th |
| 1930 | Phar Lap | 1.73 | WON |
| 1929 | Phar Lap | 2.00 | 3rd |
| 1928 | Strephon | 3.25 | 2nd |
| 1927 | Silvius | 4.00 | 2nd |
| 1926 | Pantheon | 3.25 | 3rd |
| 1925 | Manfred | 2.75 | 2nd |
| 1924 | Spearfelt | 3.25 | 3rd |
| 1923 | Bitalli | 5.00 | WON |
| 1922 | The Cypher | 7.00 | 2nd |
| 1921 | Eurythmic | 6.00 | Pulled up |
| 1920 | Salitros | 6.00 | Unplaced |
| 1919 | Lucknow | 7.00 | 4th |
| 1918 | King Offa | 4.50 | 5th |
| 1917 | Lanius | 2.75 | 6th |
| 1916 | Shepherd King | 5.00 | 2nd |
| 1915 | Lavendo | 6.00 | 14th |
| Reputation | 6.00 | Unplaced | |
| 1914 | St Carwyne | 6.00 | 4th |
| 1913 | Beragoon | 4.00 | 5th |
| 1912 | Duke Foote | 2.50 | Unplaced |
| 1911 | Trafalgar | 4.50 | 15th |
| 1910 | Trafalgar | 5.50 | 2nd |
| 1909 | Prince Foote | 5.00 | WON |
| Trafalgar | 5.00 | 4th | |
| 1908 | Alawa | 3.25 | 5th |
| 1907 | Apologue | 4.00 | WON |
| 1906 | Solution | 4.50 | 6th |
| 1905 | Tartan | 4.50 | 3rd |
| 1904 | Wariki | 7.00 | Broke down |
| 1903 | Abundance | 5.50 | 12th |
| FJA | 5.50 | Unplaced | |
| 1902 | Abundance | 5.00 | 3rd |
| The Persian | 5.00 | 12th | |
| 1901 | Revenue | 2.75 | WON |
| 1900 | Lancaster | 4.00 | 11th |
| 1899 | Merriwee | 8.00 | WON |
| Wait-A-Bit | 8.00 | Unplaced | |
| 1898 | Clarion | 6.00 | 10th |
| 1897 | Positano | 7.00 | 6th |
| 1896 | Newhaven | 5.00 | WON |
| 1895 | Hova | 6.00 | 2nd |
| 1894 | Ruenalf | 4.00 | 10th |
| 1893 | Sainfoin | 9.00 | Unplaced |
| 1892 | Malvolio | 7.00 | Unplaced |
| 1891 | Pigeontoe | 5.00 | Unplaced |
| 1890 | Carbine | 5.00 | WON |
| 1889 | Melos | 5.00 | 3rd |
| 1888 | Chicago | 5.00 | 7th |
| 1887 | Meteor | 6.00 | 14th |
| 1886 | Trident | 6.00 | 4th |
| 1885 | Nordenfeldt | 6.00 | 4th |
| 1884 | Hastings | 6.00 | 4th |
| 1883 | Martini-Henry | 6.00 | WON |
| 1882 | Sweet William | 5.00 | 4th |
| 1881 | Darebin | 4.00 | 9th |
| 1880 | Progress | 4.00 | 2nd |
| 1879 | Suwarrow | 4.25 | 3rd |
| 1878 | Melita | 5.00 | Unplaced |
| 1877 | Savanaka | 5.00 | 2nd |
| 1876 | Feu D'Artifice | 4.25 | Unplaced |
| 1875 | Imperial | 4.00 | 6th |
| 1874 | Goldsbrough | 3.00 | 7th |
| 1873 | Don Juan | 4.00 | WON |
| 1872 | Contessa | 5.00 | Unplaced |
| 1871 | Romula | 4.00 | 2nd |
| 1870 | Lapdog | 6.00 | 2nd |
| Warrior | 6.00 | Unplaced | |
| Trump Card | 6.00 | Unplaced | |
| 1869 | Circassian | 3.00 | Unplaced |
| 1868 | Tim Whiffler | 3.50 | 4th |
| 1867 | Tim Whiffler | 3.50 | WON |
| 1866 | The Barb | 7.00 | WON |
| 1865 | Panic | 6.00 | 2nd |
| Rose Of Denmark | 6.00 | Unplaced | |
| 1864 | Roebuck | 4.50 | Unplaced |
| 1863 | Musidora | 3.00 | 2nd |
| Rose Of Denmark | 3.00 | 3rd | |
| 1862 | Archer | 3.00 | WON |
| 1861 | Mormon | 4.00 | 2nd |
Source:Miller's Guide Collated by: ABC Fact Check/ABC News Digital's Daniel Franklin/ABC Interactive Digital Storytelling/TAB |
Topics:horse-racing, human-interest, gambling, australia
Melbourne Cup Horses
First posted November 03, 2014 12:36:16
